TPB’s Q4 2025: Modern Oral Momentum, Margin Growth, and a 2026 Revenue Forecast That Keeps the Ball in Play

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (ticker: TPB) reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that foreground a shift toward its Modern Oral business while still buoying the company’s overall profitability. The EPS line moved higher, with a reported Diluted EPS of $0.42 and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $0.95, against a year-ago backdrop of $0.13 and $0.98, respectively. The press release also presents a clear revenue forecast for 2026, signaling that management views Modern Oral as a durable growth engine rather than a temporary spur.

For readers tracking earnings surprises versus EPS consensus, the report paints a picture where the headline numbers bolster confidence in the company’s directional bets, even as some legacy segments navigate a more mixed near-term trajectory.

Financial highlights at a glance

Q4 2025 net sales: $121.0 million, up 29.2% year over year. This marks a solid top-line lift driven by robust coverage across the portfolio.

Modern Oral segment: Q4 2025 net sales for Modern Oral rose 266% to $41.3 million, comprising 34% of total company net sales, up from 12% in Q4 2024. This rapid contribution underscores a strategic pivot toward higher-growth categories.

Profitability: Gross profit climbed 29.1% to $67.7 million. Net income surged 239.8% to $8.2 million, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 14.4% to $30.0 million. The margin expansion accompanies the revenue mix shift.

Earnings per share: Diluted EPS came in at $0.42; Adjusted Diluted EPS was $0.95, versus $0.13 and $0.98 one year earlier, respectively. Schedule references in the release indicate reconciliation notes for the adjustments.

Segment performance: a tale of two lines

The Stoker’s segment posted a notable gain, with net sales up 69.5% on the quarter, signaling strong brand momentum within that portfolio. By contrast, the Zig-Zag segment posted a modest decline of 12.8% in net sales. The combined effect contributed to the overall 29.2% top-line rise, illustrating how the Modern Oral strategy can skew traditional segment dynamics in the near term.

This mix matters for the margin picture as well, since the Modern Oral category is delivering outsized growth that could help offset slower growth in legacy lines, potentially supporting a healthier earnings trajectory even if some product families wobble quarter-to-quarter.

Outlook and what it implies for earnings trajectory

TPB issued a 2026 revenue forecast that emphasizes Modern Oral as the core growth pillar: Modern Oral Gross Revenue expected in the range of $220–$240 million and Net Revenue of $180–$190 million for the year. This guidance signals management’s confidence in continued expansion of the Modern Oral franchise and the ability to scale margins alongside top-line gains.

From an investor-relations perspective, the forecast provides a clear narrative for revenue forecast planning and enables juxtaposition against EPS expectations. While the press release does not publish a formal EPS consensus figure, the implied trajectory—strong top-line momentum with continued EBITDA progression—has the feel of a plausible earnings surprise subject to execution in 2026.

What this portends for TPB and sector peers

TPB is betting on a structural shift toward Modern Oral as a growth engine, which could lift overall multiples if the model consistently delivers margin expansion and cash generation. The 2026 revenue forecast frames the company as potentially less dependent on legacy categories, a theme sector peers might monitor as consumer preferences evolve away from historical core lines.

For sector peers in branded consumer products with a similar mix of legacy and new formats, TPB’s results suggest that disciplined product diversification and a clear segment strategy can materially shift profitability even when one segment underperforms. Investors may watch for how the Stoker’s and Zig-Zag dynamics evolve in 2026 as a bellwether for whether Modern Oral can sustain the pace without compromising operating leverage.

Notes and the small print that matters

The press release anchors several notable notes: Schedule A provides a reconciliation to net income for Adjusted EBITDA, and Schedule B offers reconciliation to Diluted EPS. The December 31, 2025 end-date frames a quarterly comparison against 2024, with the FY 2025 vs. 2024 context alluded to in the document’s closing sections. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, and the release emphasizes that TPB is a manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of branded consumer products, including alternative smoking accessories and consumables with active ingredients.

Bottom line

TPB’s Q4 2025 results reaffirm a strategic pivot toward Modern Oral as a growth engine, delivering a meaningful uplift in both revenue and profitability. The 2026 revenue forecast reinforces that the company intends to monetize this momentum with a forward-looking plan that could influence earnings momentum and investor expectations in the sector. If the Modern Oral growth keeps delivering, the EPS trajectory and revenue forecast could convert into sustained earnings visibility—an outcome that would likely shape how TPB’s EPS consensus discussions unfold across peers in the consumer-branded products space.