Moderna's mRNA Pipeline: A Revenue Forecast Worth Vaccinating

January 9, 2023 | By Matt Levine Style

Introduction: A Shot in the Arm for Investors

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) has been making headlines not just for its pivotal role in the COVID-19 pandemic but also for its ambitious mRNA pipeline that seems to be expanding faster than a booster shot. With COVID-19 vaccine sales reaching approximately $18.4 billion in 2022 (unaudited), the company is reiterating a 2023 revenue forecast of around $5 billion, backed by confirmed contracts and some optimistic deferrals from last year. But is this a case of ?earnings surprise? or just another shot of optimism?

Pipeline Progress: More Than Just a Vaccine

As Moderna continues to scale, it now boasts 48 programs in development, 36 of which are in ongoing clinical studies. This is akin to a well-stocked pharmacy: you can pick up everything from infectious disease vaccines to mRNA therapeutics. Notably, the company is ramping up its R&D investments to a staggering $4.5 billion for 2023?an indication that they are not content to rest on their laurels.

Upcoming Trials: Efficacy and Expansion

Moderna's pivotal Phase 3 study of mRNA-1345, targeting respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in older adults, has accrued the necessary cases for its first interim efficacy analysis. This could potentially position the company at the forefront of RSV treatments, adding another feather to its mRNA cap. And let?s not forget the collaboration with Merck on mRNA-4157/V940, which showed a 44% reduction in disease recurrence or death in melanoma patients. If the Phase 3 study goes well, that could be another revenue stream in the making.

CEO St?phane Bancel Speaks Out

St?phane Bancel, Moderna's CEO, expressed optimism about the company's position as it enters 2023. With a balance sheet boasting over $18 billion in cash and equivalents, the company is well-equipped to manage its ambitious plans. Bancel noted, ?Our progress is meeting the high expectations we set out a few years ago.? One can only hope those expectations don?t have a booster shot of inflation attached!

Investor Takeaway: The Bottom Line on EPS Consensus

As Moderna prepares for its presentation at the 41st Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, investors will be keen to absorb details on EPS consensus and future earnings. The upcoming earnings report will likely be scrutinized for any signs of earnings surprises or adjustments to the revenue forecast. With its robust pipeline and an energized team, Moderna may well be poised to exceed expectations, but in the world of biotech, it?s always a gamble. After all, a shot of optimism can sometimes come with unintended side effects.